Population of French Polynesia

Recent figures suggest an estimated 2026 population of 283,188 for French Polynesia, representing a slow but steady growth trend in the central South Pacific. The territory currently holds a global rank of 179 of 215 and is the most populous entity in the Polynesia subregion. With a population density of 81.6 people per km² (211.3 per sq mi), residents are predominantly concentrated in the Society Islands, particularly on Tahiti. Urbanization is significant, with approximately 62% of the population living in urban centers like Papeetē as the territory transitions toward a service-based economy.

The demographic history of French Polynesia began with the Great Polynesian Migration, with the Marquesas Islands being settled around 200 BC and the Society Islands by approximately 300 AD. European contact in the late 18th century introduced foreign diseases that caused a devastating population crash, reducing the indigenous population of Tahiti and surrounding islands by nearly 85% over several decades. Recovery began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries as health conditions stabilized under French administration. A major demographic shift occurred between 1966 and 1996 due to the establishment of the Centre d'Expérimentations du Pacifique for nuclear testing. This era triggered massive internal migration from remote atolls in the Tuamotus and Australs to the main island of Tahiti. The influx of military personnel and the creation of a wage-based economy fundamentally reorganized the settlement patterns, leading to the high urban concentration found in the capital of Papeetē today.

Current estimates show a low annual growth rate of approximately 0.24%, reflecting a demographic transition common in modern Pacific territories. This slow expansion is primarily driven by a fertility rate of 1.49 births per woman, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1 children. The territory is currently experiencing an aging trend, as the median age is now approximately 36.7 years. Despite the low birth rate, the population remains stable due to exceptional health standards and a high life expectancy of 84.19 years, which ranks 7th globally. The crude birth rate stands at 10.7 per 1,000 people, while the crude death rate is much lower at 3.8 per 1,000 people. Future projections suggest the population will continue to rise incrementally in the short term, though long-term growth depends on migration patterns between the islands and metropolitan France.

The population density is approximately 81.6 people per km² (211.3 per sq mi), though this is heavily skewed toward the urban coastal areas of Tahiti where the majority of the land area of 4167 km² (1608.9 sq mi) is concentrated.

Currently, 61.7% of the population lives in urban areas, a figure that reflects the centralization of the economy around tourism and government administration in Papeetē.

French Polynesia occupies a prominent demographic position in the South Pacific, ranking as the 1st largest population of the 5 entities in the Polynesia subregion. Within the broader Oceania region, it is the 8th largest of 19 countries and territories. Its global position at 179th puts it in a similar size category to other island nations like Barbados or Vanuatu, but it maintains a much higher life expectancy than many of its regional neighbors.