Population of Guinea-Bissau

The estimated 2026 population of Guinea-Bissau is 2,299,511, representing a steady expansion from the latest official 2024 figure of 2,201,352. The country currently holds a global population rank of 147 of 215, with an annual growth rate of approximately 2.2%. Although it remains one of the least populous nations in Western Africa, its population density is rising, currently reaching 81.8 people per km² (211.9 per sq mi) with a significant trend toward urbanization in the capital and other major sectors.

The demographic history of Guinea-Bissau is deeply intertwined with its struggle for independence from Portugal and subsequent periods of political instability. Originally part of the Kaabu and Mali Empires, the region became the colony of Portuguese Guinea, where the slave trade and colonial 'pacification campaigns' significantly altered local population distributions. The War of Independence, led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde from 1963 to 1974, eventually led to the recognition of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau. During this conflict, many civilians were confined to larger towns or fled to neighboring countries, shaping the early modern demographic landscape. Following independence, the country faced a decade-long period of volatility that culminated in a civil war between 1998 and 1999. This conflict caused the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, particularly from the capital, Bissau, to rural areas and across the borders to Senegal and Guinea. In recent decades, however, the trend has reversed as political stability intermittently returns, leading to a consistent natural increase in the population and a renewed movement toward urban centers. These historical events have resulted in a diverse ethnic tapestry, with the Balanta, Fula, and Mandinka groups forming the majority of the current population.

Population growth in Guinea-Bissau remains robust, driven by a high fertility rate of 3.8 births per woman according to the latest official data. The annual growth rate of 2.2% reflects a demographic transition where birth rates remain high at 29.6 per 1,000 people, while the crude death rate has declined to approximately 7.0 per 1,000. These figures suggest a young and rapidly expanding population that is projected to continue growing throughout the coming decades, potentially reaching over 4.6 million by the end of the century. While natural increase is the primary driver of growth, migration also plays a nuanced role. Historically, political insecurity caused temporary outward migration, but recent data indicates that the population would grow even faster at 2.3% if net migration were zero. The current life expectancy stands at 64.3 years, showing gradual improvement as health infrastructure develops. Despite the official median age being recorded at 58.6 years in recent datasets, the high birth rate ensures that a significant portion of the nation consists of a youthful workforce entering the urban economy.

The current estimated population density is 81.8 people per km² (211.9 per sq mi), ranking the country 24th in Africa for density as of the latest regional data.

With an urban population of 46.1%, Guinea-Bissau is seeing nearly half of its residents living in cities, a trend driven largely by the centralization of services and economic opportunities in Bissau.

Guinea-Bissau occupies a unique demographic position in Western Africa, holding a subregional rank of 15 of 16, making it one of the smallest nations in the region by population. It sits significantly behind neighboring Senegal, which has a population nearly nine times larger, and Guinea to the south. Globally, its rank of 147 of 215 places it among the smaller half of the world's nations, comparable in size to countries like Slovenia or Latvia. In terms of density, Guinea-Bissau ranks 24th of 54 in Africa, with 81.8 people per km² (211.9 per sq mi). This is a moderate density for the region, higher than that of its larger neighbor Guinea but lower than several other coastal West African nations. Its urbanization rate of 46.1% is characteristic of the regional shift toward city living, placing it 156th globally in urbanization as more residents move into the autonomous sector of Bissau and surrounding urban hubs.